Data centres are one of the largest categories of private investment in Australia. CommBank estimates around $150 billion of nominal data centre construction by 2030 and about $220 billion to build the full pipeline. It expects data centre investment to add about 0.2 percentage points to real GDP growth in both 2026 and 2027. The largest transaction to date is the Blackstone-led acquisition of AirTrunk, at an implied enterprise value of more than A$24 billion.
This page is general market analysis. It is not financial product advice and does not consider anyone's objectives or circumstances. Seek licensed advice before making investment decisions.
Australian Market Overview
| Indicator | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Operational capacity, 2025 | ~1.4 GW | DC Byte |
| Forecast operational capacity, 2030 | ~3.2 GW | DC Byte |
| Estimated nominal build to 2030 | ~$150 billion | CommBank, Aug 2026 |
| Cost to build full pipeline | ~$220 billion | CommBank |
| Data centre lease revenue, FY30 (forecast) | $8,438 million (20.5% CAGR) | Venture Insights |
| Private capex, information, media and telecommunications, Q1 2026 | Up almost 90% | CommBank (ABS data) |
| NSW SSD pipeline | 19 projects, $50.3 billion | NSW Government, Aug 2026 |
| Victorian data sector capex, last year | $5.8 billion | Victorian Government, Sep 2026 |
Investment Drivers
- Cloud expansion. Hyperscale cloud providers have made multi-year commitments: AWS A$20 billion (2025–2029) and Microsoft A$25 billion (to the end of 2029).
- AI compute. GPU capacity for training and inference, from AI developers (OpenAI's MoU with NEXTDC, Anthropic's reported lease in Queensland) and GPU cloud providers (Firmus).
- Sovereignty. Government, defence and regulated industries require onshore, certified hosting.
- Long-term contracted income. Hyperscale leases are typically long and with high-credit tenants, which suits infrastructure and real estate investors.
- Scarcity of power-ready sites. Where grid capacity is constrained, sites with secured power carry a premium.
AI & Cloud Demand
| Company | Commitment | Announced |
|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | A$25 billion to the end of 2029, including expanding its Azure footprint by more than 140% | 23 Apr 2026 |
| Amazon (AWS) | A$20 billion, 2025–2029 | June 2025 |
| Firmus | A$4.5 billion initial, scaling to A$73.3 billion through 2028 (Project Southgate, stated) | Oct 2025 |
| OpenAI and NEXTDC | ~A$7 billion S7 AI campus (non-binding MoU) | 5 Dec 2025 |
| Zerra DC | ~$32 billion Western Downs Digital Park (proposed; reported Anthropic lease for Building One) | Aug–Sep 2026 |
Announced figures are commitments or plans, not money spent. They may be revised, phased or cancelled.
Major Investors
| Investor | Australian data centre exposure |
|---|---|
| Blackstone | Led the acquisition of AirTrunk (agreed Sept 2024, >A$24 billion implied EV); led the US$10 billion Firmus debt facility (Feb 2026) |
| CPP Investments | Co-investor in AirTrunk |
| Goodman Group | Developing data centres in Sydney (SYD01 Artarmon, Project Atlas Eastern Creek). Reports a 6 GW+ global power bank and about AUD 14 billion of data centre work in progress globally (w.media) |
| NEXTDC shareholders | ASX-listed; funds S4, S7, M4 and other developments |
| Quinbrook Infrastructure Partners | Supernode, Brisbane: over $1.4 billion committed for battery Stages 1 to 3 |
Development Pipeline
Pipeline estimates vary because sources measure different things:
| Source | Pipeline | Definition |
|---|---|---|
| CommBank | ~6 GW | Potential capacity |
| DC Byte | 21.6 GW | Early stage, committed and under construction IT load |
| AEMO | 67 GW | Proposed connection capacity, 225 projects |
The committed tier is the best guide to near-term supply: 3.1 GW nationally per DC Byte. AEMO found that about 36% of projects on its 2025 list have since been cancelled.
Power-Ready Land
The scarcest input is land with secured grid capacity, not land itself:
- Transgrid reports more than 10 GW of enquiries within 12 km of Sydney West and about 1.5 GW in signed Greater Sydney connection agreements.
- Transgrid's August 2026 capacity allocation policy requires evidence of progress on permits, land, construction, equipment and financing before capacity is held permanently. This makes it harder to hold grid capacity speculatively.
- Goodman's approach is to secure power first (its "power bank") and then develop. SYD01 Artarmon has 90 MW of secured utility power for 61 MW of IT load.
Data Centre Property
Data centre assets fall into three broad types:
| Type | Income profile | Examples |
|---|---|---|
| Powered shell or land | Developer builds the shell; the tenant fits out | Goodman's powered shell programme |
| Turnkey hyperscale | Operator builds and fits out; long-term lease to one or a few tenants | AirTrunk, CDC |
| Retail colocation | Many customers on shorter contracts; interconnection revenue | Equinix, NEXTDC, Global Switch |
Construction Economics
Implied costs per MW from announced projects vary widely because scope varies:
| Project | Implied cost per MW (announced) |
|---|---|
| NEXTDC M4 | ~$12.3 million |
| AirTrunk MEL2 | ~$14.1 million |
| NEXTDC S7 (MoU campus) | ~$10.8 million |
| Macquarie IC3 Super West | ~$7.4 million |
Our calculation from announced totals and stated capacity. See data centre construction for method and caveats.
Globally, Turner & Townsend found the cost per watt of air-cooled cloud data centres rose 5.5% in 2025, with liquid-cooled facilities costing 7 to 10% more in the US.
Risks & Constraints
| Risk | Evidence |
|---|---|
| Grid connection | Sydney basin transmission capacity largely committed (Transgrid) |
| Project attrition | About 36% of AEMO's 2025 project list cancelled, including more than 30% of projects classed as committed |
| Policy change | NSW framework (Aug 2026), Victorian action plan (Sep 2026) and federal legislation expected early 2027. Requirements for new renewable supply, water and community benefit add cost and conditions |
| Planning opposition | Objections on generators, noise and water on Western Sydney SSDs; council objections (e.g. Penrith on the Mamre Road campus) |
| Water | Sydney Water estimates the sector could add up to 20 to 25% to Greater Sydney's demand by 2035; IPART review of pricing for large users |
| Equipment | Transformer and switchgear lead times (Wood Mackenzie: 128 and 44 weeks respectively, US, Q2 2025) |
| Labour | Powering Skills Organisation estimates about 13,000 extra energy trades are needed for data centres |
| Tenant concentration | Hyperscale campuses depend on a small number of large customers; MoUs are not binding leases |
| Technology change | Rapid GPU generation changes can make designs outdated before the buildings are |
Major Transactions
| Date | Transaction | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2024 | Blackstone-led consortium (with CPP Investments) agrees to acquire AirTrunk from Macquarie Asset Management and PSP Investments | >A$24 billion implied EV | Blackstone |
| Oct 2024 | NEXTDC acquires the S7 Eastern Creek site (25.5 ha) | A$353 million | ARN |
| Feb 2026 | Firmus secures a private debt facility led by Blackstone-managed funds | US$10 billion | DCD |
| 2026 | Australian Data Centres acquires the Fyshwick campus in Canberra from Verizon | Not disclosed | ADC |
Market Outlook
The main forecasts agree on direction but differ on scale:
- Capacity: from ~1.4 GW (2025) to ~3.2 GW (2030) (DC Byte), in line with Venture Insights' 1,428 MW to 3,176 MW (FY25 to FY30).
- Electricity: NEM data centre use rising from ~5 TWh to ~34 TWh by 2035-36 (AEMO).
- Investment: ~$150 billion of construction by 2030 (CommBank central estimate).
The main uncertainty is how much of the pipeline can get grid connections, meet new state and federal requirements, and secure tenants. Grid connection agreements, planning determinations and signed leases (as opposed to MoUs) are the most reliable indicators of what will actually be built.
Get the Full Picture
Download the Australian Data Centre Pipeline Report for capacity by city and stage, developers, and power and cooling requirements.
Sources & Verification
- CommBank: Australia's data centre boom, 6 Aug 2026. Link
- DC Byte: Forecast report, Apr 2026. Link
- Venture Insights: 2026 outlook. Link
- Blackstone: AirTrunk. Link
- Microsoft, Amazon, Firmus: see linked announcements above.
- Victorian Government: Sustainable Data Centre Action Plan. Link
- AEMO 2026 ESOO via w.media. Link
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